Luck and the Game of Baseball

Luck is one of the most unquantifiable aspects of anything.  That's no different when you consider the game of baseball.  As a case study on the effects of luck in baseball, I'd like to take a few minutes to consider the 2012 MVP campaign of Detroit Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera.  Let me preface this discussion by saying I'm not trying to reenter the Trout/Cabrera debate over who should have won the MVP.  I just found the case of Cabrera quite interesting. 

As for a little background on Cabrera, he burst on the scene in 2003 as a midseason callup for the then Florida Marlins.  That Marlins squad, led by a strong pitching staff, went on to defeat the New York Yankees in the World Series.  By far and away, the two highest risers off of that Marlins squad were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett.  As is typical for strong performers in Miami, neither remained on the team as long as fans would have liked.  During the 2007 offseason, Cabrera was traded along with pitcher Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for mostly unremarkable prospects.  Cabrera has always been a strong hitter, having not posted a batting average less than .290 since his rookie season.  One of the major aspects of his hitting prowess is his remarkable consistency.  His career batting average and slugging percentage have increased each year, except for his first year in Detroit (2008).  We can most likely chalk that up to a combination of playing in a tougher league, adjustment issues playing in a new city, and pressing to live up to the expectations of the trade.

Noting Cabrera's remarkable consistency, what changed Miguel from just a really great hitter into a MVP and Triple Crown winner?  One of the first things that came to mind was the fact that in 2012 Cabrera got to hit each day in front of Prince Fielder.  While that might of had some effect, lineup protection is notably difficult to quantify.  Did the rest of the league collectively become worse hitters and Cabrera stay the same?  Regardless of cause though, what was the main difference in 2003-2011 Cabrera and 2012 Cabrera?  I would like to submit the idea that there wasn't a major change in Miguel Cabrera or the league for that matter.  The only difference for Cabrera was luck. 

The following table shows Cabrera's 2012 season against his averages from 2003-2011 over an equivalent number of plate appearances.  We can see two major changes.  First, Cabrera walked less and struck out less than years previous.  In other words, he was putting more balls in play.  Secondly, he saw quite the increase in power, hitting a home run every 16 plate appearances, as compared to 21 over his career. 

Years	PA	HR	H	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	BB%	K%	PA/HR
2003-2011	697	33	193	.317	.555	.395	.950	11.1%	17.5%	20.9
2012	697	44	205	.330	.606	.393	.999	9.5%	14.1%	15.8

 
Well you might argue that an increase in power is not luck, so this post is pointless.  On the surface, you might be right.  However, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker, Cabrera led all of MLB last year with six so-called lucky home runs.  A lucky home run is one that would not have cleared the fence without the weather conditions of that given day.  If we "remove luck from the equation" though, how would Cabrera's 2012 season have looked?  Considering that the majority of flyballs are converted into outs, if we simply remove those six lucky home runs and convert them into outs, this is how his 2012 line changes.
 

Years	PA	HR	H	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	BB%	K%	PA/HR
With Luck	697	44	205	.330	.606	.393	.999	9.5%	14.1%	15.8
Without Luck	697	38	199	.320	.568	.385	.952	9.5%	14.1%	18.3

As we should expect, we see a rather significant drop in SLG and OPS.  Now, let's compare this adjusted season line to his career line.
 

Years	PA	HR	H	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	BB%	K%	PA/HR
Career	697	33	193	.317	.555	.395	.950	11.1%	17.5%	20.9
Adjusted 2012	697	38	199	.320	.568	.385	.952	9.5%	14.1%	18.3

It's quite remarkable to me how similar these numbers are.  At the end of the day, Miguel Cabrera didn't make some astronomical leap to become the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yazstremski.  He just played the same way he had his entire career and got "lucky" with six home runs.  Without these six home runs, is Miguel Cabrera the 2012 AL MVP?  No one knows that answer, and like I said before, I'm not trying to restart that debate.  I'm not trying to belittle Cabrera's accomplishments either.  The only word to describe his 2012 season is magical.  Lucky home runs happen to every one.  If he would have had six home runs robbed last year on top of these six not leaving the park, would people be asking what was wrong with Miguel Cabrera?  Most likely.  That's the point of this post.  Most of the time, there's nothing really wrong with a slumping player, and there's generally no major changes that led to a historic season for a player.  When you really sit down and look at things, luck plays a much bigger role than most people would like to admit.

--Stats All Folks